Why China won’t start a currency war

Some said China’s small currency devaluation on August 11 would lead to a currency war.  It hasn’t happened yet as China has not allowed the RMB to fall much below the level that was reached on the day of the devaluation.  The fact is there is more reason for China to support the RMB than to let it depreciate.  Here’s why that is the case. 

Did China Just Blink?

Is China’s currency devaluation a sign of desperation?  Is a hard landing now unavoidable?   Everyone knew China’s double-digit growth rate couldn’t last forever. Optimists were hoping for a “soft…

US Politicians Ignoring the Reality of China’s Currency “Manipulation”

It is the market that wants China’s currency to devalue, not China’s government   As China’s recent currency devaluation rekindles the “currency manipulator” argument and rapidly enters the presidential campaign…

Is China a Currency Manipulator?

China’s decision to allow its currency to devalue by 2% on Tuesday (8/11/15) will certainly reignite the debate as to whether China manipulates its currency, primarily for the purpose of giving…

Measuring China’s Progress

As China makes its gradual transition from communism to capitalism and from poverty to prosperity, it can be easy to lose track of how much progress China has made.  The…

The End of Teflon Xi

Will China’s stock market turmoil dent Xi’s stellar reputation in China? President Xi Jinping is actually a fairly popular leader, with people being drawn to his strong stands relative to corruption,…

Note to China: More Debt and Less Market is a Bad Idea

China stock market characterized by leverage and non-market measures Increasingly it seems this will be China’s approach to its entire economy Fueled largely by leverage (buying on margin increased 500%),…

Bulls & Bears: China’s Stock Market

We do think that the decisive factors in the Chinese market are the explosion in leverage (margin buying) that occurred on the way up and the extremely high PE valuations.  Any market built on such conditions will surely fall.  How far is hard to say, but continued rise looks very difficult and unstable.  As to the economic fall-out, the short term impact looks to be minimal.  But China has greater economic challenges.