This Month in a Nutshell

This Month in a Nutshell

The Middle Kingdom is the Center of Attention

 From driving global markets and to irking Donald Trump, China was never far from the headlines in August.

 

Devaluation thrusts China into US campaign

It started when China executed a minor devaluation of its currency (which was actually a readjustment that bowed to market forces). Some took this as the first step in an inevitable currency war which then became a political football in the American presidential campaign, with Donald Trump leading the way.

This Month in a Nutshell

This Month in a Nutshell

The stock market crashes.

 The government panics.

 The economy keeps slowing.

 Debt keeps growing.

 

Stock market debacle adds to the pressure on China

China already had a full plate, even before the stock market debacle that began in June and continued through July. In addition to the plethora of issues any nation faces (in China’s case, environmental degradation, terrorism from a discontented minority, tensions in the South China Sea, a huge corruption problem, etc.), China began 2015 at the most critical point of its transition from an export and investment driven economy to one led by innovation and consumer demand. We say China is at a critical point because, not only does it have to adjust to a lower, “new normal” growth rate due in part to stagnate export markets, but the debt China has added over the past five years (debt to GDP increasing from 125% to more than 250%) is putting China’s long term growth at risk.

This month in a nutshell

The economy is STILL weak, plus the stock market is falling (for now). Will China pile on the debt to try to keep things moving?

 

Between the recent hacking incident and tensions in the South China Sea, can US-Sino relations stay on an even keel?

 

June didn’t answer these questions, but it brought them closer to a head.

This month in a nutshell

The economy gets weaker.

Liberalization gets stronger.

The stock market soars higher.

Warnings in the South China Sea gets harsher.

 

Balancing growth and debt remains China’s greatest challenge

As more economic indicators suggest China’s economy continues to decelerate, concern mounts that growth, instead of adjusting to a “new normal,” will fall to an unacceptably low level that will have a serious impact on employment and the ability of China to regain momentum. China implemented another minor stimulatory measure in May, but also took actions that seem to pave the way for much larger fiscal stimulus, should the government decide it is necessary. But is more debt really what China needs? Just as it was at the beginning of 2015, the central question for China’s economy remains how China will balance debt with growth. Prudence has been the theme so far, but that could change.

加油

加油

加油 means   c.) “let’s go team,” “hustle,” i.e. something said as encouragement at a sporting event   Sports fans will chant this to encourage their team at a sporting…

This month in a nutshell

The economy still looks weak.

The government is still applying only moderate stimulus.

Liberalization is still moving slowly.

 

Nothing quite as dramatic as the Chinese victory (and American defeat) at the AIIB happened in April relative to China. The economy is showing no signs of strengthening. It remains to be seen if China can reach its own lower goal of 7% growth…

This Month in a Nutshell

A slow month with a big win

The economy still looks weak.

 Liberalization is still moving slowly.

The government is still cracking down on dissent.

On the bright side, for China, they score a big diplomatic victory (at America’s expense.)

 And a few small steps were taken to help avoid a trade war, which is a good thing.

 

With no major surprises or new initiatives being announced at the National People’s Congress, March was a fairly uneventful month for China, with the exception being the huge victory relative to the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank….click for more

 

March Question

March Question

马 上 means c.) immediately or hurry up, as in move like you’re on a horse

China favors debt to slower growth (for now)

Economy: China takes action to stimulate the economy, indicating that, as it tries to balance growth and debt in 2015, in the short term it is willing to take on…

January, 2015 Executive Summary

    The year 2015 started with mixed news on the economy—confirmation that it slowed in 2014 and that debt levels rose, with China’s leaders sounding like they want to…