This month in a nutshell

The economy is STILL weak, plus the stock market is falling (for now). Will China pile on the debt to try to keep things moving?

 

Between the recent hacking incident and tensions in the South China Sea, can US-Sino relations stay on an even keel?

 

June didn’t answer these questions, but it brought them closer to a head.

This month in a nutshell

The economy gets weaker.

Liberalization gets stronger.

The stock market soars higher.

Warnings in the South China Sea gets harsher.

 

Balancing growth and debt remains China’s greatest challenge

As more economic indicators suggest China’s economy continues to decelerate, concern mounts that growth, instead of adjusting to a “new normal,” will fall to an unacceptably low level that will have a serious impact on employment and the ability of China to regain momentum. China implemented another minor stimulatory measure in May, but also took actions that seem to pave the way for much larger fiscal stimulus, should the government decide it is necessary. But is more debt really what China needs? Just as it was at the beginning of 2015, the central question for China’s economy remains how China will balance debt with growth. Prudence has been the theme so far, but that could change.

加油

加油

加油 means   c.) “let’s go team,” “hustle,” i.e. something said as encouragement at a sporting event   Sports fans will chant this to encourage their team at a sporting…

This month in a nutshell

The economy still looks weak.

The government is still applying only moderate stimulus.

Liberalization is still moving slowly.

 

Nothing quite as dramatic as the Chinese victory (and American defeat) at the AIIB happened in April relative to China. The economy is showing no signs of strengthening. It remains to be seen if China can reach its own lower goal of 7% growth…

Is it time to abandon China? (Summary of 4-part series)

In light of all the bad news being reported from China—a slowing economy, mounting debt, rising costs, an increasingly hostile environment for foreign companies, and a political clampdown—we have prepared this series of blogs with the intent of providing some perspective to the dire assessments and predictions that have become so common of late.

Is it time to abandon China? (The Economy)

Is a hard landing for the economy unavoidable?   Given all the bad news being reported from China—a slowing economy, mounting debt, rising costs, an increasingly hostile environment for foreign…

Is it time to abandon China? (Losing competitiveness)

Is China losing its competitiveness?   Given all the bad news being reported from China—a slowing economy, mounting debt, rising costs, an increasingly hostile environment for foreign companies, and a…

Is it time to abandon China? (Targeting foreign companies)

Is China becoming less welcoming to foreign companies?   Given all the bad news being reported from China—a slowing economy, mounting debt, rising costs, an increasingly hostile environment for foreign…

Is it time to abandon China? (Political Risk)

Is political risk in China growing as the new administration takes a hardline on many issues?   Given all the bad news being reported from China—a slowing economy, mounting debt,…

America loses out to China on the AIIB

America has been humiliated. Her allies stabbed her in the back and sold out to China. And China has just bought a huge amount of influence on the world stage.  At least, that’s what the headlines say.